Rate watch
Bank of Canada rate decisions
Every announcement since March 2022 — the hikes, the peak, and the cuts back down — with what each one actually meant for a mortgage in Toronto.
Quick answer
The Bank of Canada's policy rate is 2.25% as of September 2026, which puts prime at 4.45%. Inflation is running at about 3% (July 2026). The most recent decision was on September 2, 2026, when the Bank held the rate at 2.25%.
The rate cycle
The policy rate from the start of the hiking cycle to today.
Inflation over the same period
Total CPI, year over year. The Bank targets 2%.
Every decision since March 2022
2026
A seventh straight hold — so what actually decides a Toronto file
On September 2, 2026 the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%, keeping prime at 4.45%. Seven decisions in a row without a move.
A sixth hold, and the files that actually need a broker
On July 15, 2026 the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%, keeping prime at 4.45%. Six decisions in a row with no change.
Held again — and what a rental suite is worth to your application
On June 10, 2026 the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%, keeping prime at 4.45%. A fifth hold, into a spring market that has picked up on volume but not on price.
Held — and the two Toronto markets, in numbers
On April 29, 2026 the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%, keeping prime at 4.45%. A fourth hold, with the freehold and condo markets further apart than ever.
A third hold, and the fixed-versus-variable question
On March 18, 2026 the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%, keeping prime at 4.45%. Three holds in a row as the spring market opens.
Held, in the quietest month of the Toronto year
On January 28, 2026 the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%, keeping prime at 4.45%. A second hold, into the slowest stretch of the GTA calendar.
2025
The first hold at 2.25%, and the 2020 renewal cohort
On December 10, 2025 the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%, keeping prime at 4.45%. The pause begins.
The last cut — prime settles at 4.45%
On October 29, 2025 the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, moving prime to 4.45%. As it turned out, this was the end of the cutting cycle.
Cutting again — 2.5% and prime at 4.7%
On September 17, 2025 the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, moving prime to 4.7%. The first move in six months.
A third hold, and the condo problem
On July 30, 2025 the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.75%, keeping prime at 4.95%. Three holds in a row, and the GTA condo market is carrying more inventory than it has in a long time.
Held again, while the listings pile up
On June 4, 2025 the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.75%, keeping prime at 4.95%. A second consecutive hold, into the most well-supplied Toronto spring in years.
The first hold — and why the stress test still decides your file
On April 16, 2025 the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.75%, keeping prime at 4.95%. After seven consecutive cuts, a pause.
A cut into a trade war, and the renewal wall
On March 12, 2025 the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, moving prime to 4.95%. Tariffs have arrived, and a large cohort of Toronto mortgages is coming up for renewal.
Rates at 3% — and a new down-payment math for Toronto
On January 29, 2025 the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3%, moving prime to 5.2%. The fifth cut in a row, with the higher insured-financing cap now in force.
2024
Another half point — and a rule change days away
On December 11, 2024 the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 50 basis points to 3.25%, moving prime to 5.45%. Prime has now fallen 1.75 points since June, and a change that matters more to Toronto buyers lands four days later.
A half-point cut, and the condo–freehold gap widens
On October 23, 2024 the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%, moving prime to 5.95%. A double move, and the first real relief for anyone holding a variable rate.
A third cut — and what it is actually worth on a Toronto mortgage
On September 4, 2024 the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, moving prime to 6.45%. The third cut in a row, into a market where the average sale price was still above $1.1 million.
What the Bank's rate actually changes for you
The overnight rate moves prime, and prime is what variable-rate mortgages and home equity lines of credit are priced against. When the Bank moves, a variable-rate holder feels it within days — either as a payment change, or, on a fixed-payment variable, as a shift in how much of the same payment goes to interest instead of principal.
Fixed rates work differently. They follow Government of Canada bond yields, which move on what markets expect the Bank to do next. That is why fixed rates often move before an announcement, and sometimes barely move on the day itself.
For most Toronto files, though, the rate is not the variable that decides the outcome. How a lender treats overtime, shift premium, bonus and rotational income changes the approval amount far more than a quarter point does — which is what this guide is about. See today's Toronto mortgage rates for what's actually available right now.
Bank of Canada questions
What is the Bank of Canada policy rate right now?+
The Bank of Canada's policy rate — the target for the overnight rate — is 2.25% as of September 2026. That puts prime at 4.45%, which is the rate variable mortgages and lines of credit are priced against.
Does the Bank of Canada set my mortgage rate?+
Not directly. The Bank sets the overnight rate, which moves prime — so variable-rate mortgages and HELOCs follow it closely, usually within days. Fixed mortgage rates are priced off Government of Canada bond yields instead, which is why a fixed rate can move in a week when the Bank has done nothing at all.
How often does the Bank of Canada announce rate decisions?+
Eight times a year, on dates fixed and published well in advance. Every decision back to March 2022 is listed below — 17 in total, covering the full hiking cycle, the peak at 5.00%, and the cuts back down to 2.25%.
Should I take a fixed or variable rate in Toronto?+
There is no universally right answer — it depends on whether your budget can absorb a payment that moves, and on how long you expect to hold the mortgage. A variable follows prime, so it benefits immediately when the Bank cuts and costs more when it hikes. A fixed rate buys certainty for the term. What matters more for most Toronto borrowers is which lender will treat your overtime, shift premium and bonus income properly — that usually moves the number further than the fixed-versus-variable choice does.
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