A third hold, and the condo problem
Three consecutive holds. The Bank appears to be waiting rather than finished, but for planning purposes the sensible assumption is that prime stays where it is until something changes materially.
The story worth telling in Toronto this month is the condo market, because it has separated from the freehold market almost completely. June carried 31,603 active listings across the GTA — the highest in years — and much of that build-up is apartments. Condo sales are slow, condo prices are soft, and there are buildings where what a unit will appraise at today is below what a pre-construction buyer agreed to pay in 2021 or 2022.
If you are closing on a pre-construction unit, that gap is the thing to deal with now rather than at closing. A lender lends against the lesser of purchase price and appraised value, so a shortfall has to be covered in cash. The time to find out is well before your occupancy date, when there are still options — and this is genuinely a case where getting a broker to look at it early can save a closing.
For a buyer with a down payment and stable income, the same conditions are an opportunity. A GTA condo apartment averaging in the mid-$600,000s needs a minimum down payment of about $39,000 under the insured rules — 5% of the first $500,000 plus 10% of the rest. That is a very different entry point from the $310,000 a $1.55 million detached house in the 416 now requires, and it is why the two markets are behaving so differently.
What the Bank said
“The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%. While some elements of US trade policy have started to become more concrete in recent weeks, trade negotiations are fluid, threats of new sectoral tariffs continue, and US trade actions remain unpredictable.”
The rate path around this decision
For context, unemployment was running at about 6.9% and inflation at 1.7% around this decision.
Where this leaves you
Rate announcements make headlines; approvals turn on your own numbers. If you're buying, renewing or refinancing in Toronto, the useful next step is finding out what you actually qualify for — see current rates, run the math, or start an application. You can also follow the local market in our Toronto housing market reports.